| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 26, 2026 will be; it matters to traders and weather-interested participants because single-day extremes affect energy demand, outdoor events, and short-term weather risk assessments.
Late March is a transition period in the southeastern U.S., when lingering cool air masses can be displaced by early-season warm surges. Atlanta’s daily maxima on this date depend heavily on the presence or absence of frontal passages, cloud cover, and precipitation, and occasional outlier warm spells have occurred historically. The market lists six discrete outcomes representing different temperature bands for that calendar date as defined by the contract.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of which temperature band is most likely given current forecasts and information; changes in price typically follow shifts in model guidance, observations, or new weather data. Use market prices as a complement to meteorological forecasts rather than a replacement for official weather products.
Consult the contract text on the KALSHI event page for the official resolution source and station; contracts typically specify an official observing station or dataset (for example a local ASOS/FB station) and that the maximum reported air temperature for the local calendar date will be used.
The posted close time is currently TBD; resolution timing and payout schedule will follow the rules published on the KALSHI event page, which specify when official observations are considered final and when payouts occur.
The event’s outcomes correspond to six discrete temperature bands defined in the contract; check the market’s outcome labels on the KALSHI page to see the exact numeric ranges and boundaries used for each outcome.
Late March is climatologically transitional — typical daytime highs commonly fall in the upper 50s to upper 60s Fahrenheit, though strong warm advection can push highs into the 70s or above and strong cold intrusions can keep highs notably lower; determining how unusual a given reading is requires comparing the observed value to local climatology for that date.
Track model suites (GFS/ECMWF/HRRR/NAM), timing of frontal passages, precipitation forecasts, surface observations leading up to the date, and official NWS forecasts for Atlanta; abrupt shifts in model timing or the arrival of organized precipitation are often decisive for the daily maximum.