| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest measured in Atlanta on March 22, 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader expectations about a specific daily weather outcome that can reflect short- and medium-term forecast skill.
Daily high temperatures in Atlanta are driven by synoptic-scale patterns (fronts, ridges, troughs) and local effects (urban heat island, cloud cover, wind). Historical seasonal climatology for late March shows high variability as the region transitions from winter to spring, so forecasts can change substantially in the days before the date. The event's outcomes are discrete buckets that settle to an official observed maximum as defined by the contract.
Market odds summarize the crowd's evolving expectations about which temperature bucket will be realized; they update in real time as new weather model runs and observations arrive. Use the odds as a dynamic signal of market sentiment rather than a definitive forecast, and refer to the official contract for settlement rules.
The contract will specify the official reporting station and data source (for example, an NWS/NOAA station) and the time window used to define the calendar date; settlement uses the maximum observed temperature as recorded by that official dataset.
The listing shows the close time as TBD; the market will stop accepting trades at the stated close and will settle after the contract's designated observation and verification period—consult the event page for final close and settlement timing once posted.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bucket or exact-value option as listed in the contract; the winning outcome is the bucket that contains the official maximum temperature recorded for the specified station and date.
Expect incremental updates as deterministic and ensemble model runs, satellite and radar observations, and surface reports become available—days-out forecasts drive early positioning, while the 24–72 hour window usually produces the largest shifts in market expectations.
Always read the event's contract text and settlement definition on the market page; it will list the exact station, authoritative data source, time standard (local vs. UTC), and any tie-breaking or data-revision policies that apply to this March 22, 2026 event.