| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six defined outcomes will equal the highest temperature observed in Atlanta on March 20, 2026. It matters for traders and participants who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes that can affect energy use, event planning, and local economic activity.
Late March is a transitional period in Atlanta when synoptic-scale systems can produce a wide range of daily highs, so single-day temperature markets can move substantially as forecasts evolve. The contract on Kalshi lists six mutually exclusive outcomes for that calendar date; trading details such as closing time and the official settlement source are specified on the market page. Current traded volume and open interest may be low at listing, and market prices will update as new observations and model runs arrive.
Market prices represent the crowd’s assessment of which outcome is most likely to occur for the highest temperature on that calendar date; interpret prices as evolving indicators of market consensus rather than fixed forecasts.
Settlement will follow the official measurement source and definition specified in the Kalshi contract for this market; typically that means the maximum temperature recorded for the calendar date at the designated observing station as defined by the contract. Consult the market’s rule text on Kalshi for the precise station and measurement convention.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or discrete value as displayed on the market page; the exact boundaries are defined in the contract terms on Kalshi, so check the market description there to see which temperatures fall into each outcome.
The time window used for the calendar day settlement is defined by the contract (commonly the local 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time for the designated observation site). Verify the contract language on the Kalshi market page for the authoritative window used for this event.
New numerical weather model runs, the timing and track of any frontal systems or low-pressure areas, real-time observations (surface and upper-air), and nowcasts related to cloud cover or precipitation in the 48–72 hours before the date are the most likely drivers of price movement.
Use climatology to understand the typical range and volatility for late-March highs, but weigh that against current-season indicators—such as large-scale teleconnections and recent trends—because a single calendar date can be pushed well above or below climatological averages by transient synoptic events.