| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 15, 2026 will be; it matters for people and firms exposed to weather risk and for those tracking short-term climate variability.
March in Atlanta is a transitional month with large day-to-day swings driven by the passage of cold fronts, warm air advections, and cloud/precipitation patterns. Historical records show substantial variability for mid‑March days, and ongoing climate trends shift the baseline slowly over time. Settlement for this type of market is based on officially reported surface observations specified by the contract.
Market odds reflect participants' aggregated expectations about the official maximum temperature recorded at the designated observation site; they update as forecasts, model guidance, and new data arrive and do not guarantee the eventual reported value.
The contract will specify the official data source; settlement is commonly based on the National Weather Service observation for Atlanta (for example, the ASOS at Hartsfield‑Jackson or the designated climate station), so check KALSHI's event rules for the exact station and dataset.
Most contracts use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the specified date, but the event's settlement rules may define a specific timezone or observation interval—confirm the precise window on the market page.
Rounding, measurement resolution, and any tie‑breaking procedures are defined in the market's settlement terms; typical practice relies on the reported value from the official observing instrument and follows the contract's rounding and tie rules.
Synoptic patterns that set the day's high generally become clearer within about 3–7 days of the event, while 24–72 hour updates can still produce meaningful shifts as model runs and observations refine timing and intensity.
Long-term warming shifts the background distribution of daily highs and makes warmer outcomes relatively more common over decades, but a single day's result is still driven primarily by weather-scale dynamics, so treat climate as a background bias rather than a precise predictor for one date.