| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest observed in Atlanta on March 14, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, outdoor events, and local weather-sensitive decisions.
Atlanta in mid-March is in a seasonal transition where both late-winter cold fronts and early-spring warm spells are possible; synoptic-scale weather systems commonly drive large day-to-day swings. Historical variability and urban microclimates mean a wide range of outcomes is plausible, so forecasters rely on model guidance and surface observations as the date approaches.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders about which outcome bin will contain the observed maximum temperature; they are a summary of available information and will change as forecasts and observations evolve. Use the market as a real-time synthesis of changing forecast risk, not as a single definitive forecast.
The market will settle to the value reported by the contract's designated authoritative source and observation type (for example, an official NOAA/NWS station hourly or daily maximum). Check the contract rules for the specific resolving station and measurement definition.
Most contracts use the local calendar day (Eastern Time) from 00:00 to 23:59 for the specified date, but you should confirm the exact time window and any offset in the market's resolution rules.
The contract will name the authoritative dataset or station used for settlement (commonly an official NWS/NOAA observing station serving the Atlanta metro area); verify the listed source in the market details before trading.
Market prices usually move as model guidance updates and uncertainty narrows, with especially notable swings in the 48–72 hours before the event when short-range models and observational data provide higher-confidence temperature forecasts.
Possible causes include instrumentation errors, post-event quality control by the reporting agency, station metadata changes, or clarification of which observing site applies; the contract's dispute and resolution procedures specify how such cases are handled.