| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 93% | 93¢ | 98¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which pre-defined temperature range will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 11, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-risk participants who use short-term temperature outcomes for hedging, speculation, or research into extreme-day probability.
Early March in Atlanta sits in a transitional season where strong cold-air intrusions and early warm spells are both possible; day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on the position of synoptic-scale systems. The market is structured into six mutually exclusive outcome buckets and will settle to the bucket that contains the official daily maximum recorded at the designated Atlanta observing site. Exact settlement procedures, data source, and any fallback rules are defined in the market specifications provided by KALSHI.
Odds in this market represent the aggregated expectations of participants about which temperature bucket the official measurement will fall into and therefore reflect collective information and risk appetite at a point in time. They should be interpreted as a market consensus indicator, not as a deterministic forecast.
The official close time is set by the market listing (currently TBD); settlement will use the official daily maximum temperature for the March 11 local calendar day as published by the designated observing authority. Traders should expect settlement to occur after the official observation is published and possibly after provisional/final values are available per the market’s timing rules.
The market’s rules specify the exact official observing site or authoritative dataset to be used (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA-designated Atlanta climatological station). If that station’s data are unavailable, the market rules describe fallback procedures (for example, nearest official station or NCEI dataset) — consult the market specification for the definitive source.
Outcomes are six contiguous, mutually exclusive temperature ranges listed in the market description. Settlement assigns the official recorded daily maximum to the single range that contains that value; if a value falls exactly on a bucket boundary or other edge case occurs, the market’s published rounding or inclusion convention governs the assignment.
‘Highest temperature’ refers to the maximum air temperature observed by the designated official instrument during the March 11 local calendar day (midnight-to-midnight local time, accounting for any daylight saving rules in effect). The market specification states whether settlement uses the raw reported value, a rounded value, or the reporting convention from the chosen dataset, so check the listing for rounding and truncation details.
Early March in Atlanta can show considerable variability from cool, late-winter conditions to unseasonably warm spring-like days; extreme deviations in either direction are possible but relatively uncommon. Traders should consider recent climatology, the city’s urban heat influences and any known station history, and short-term weather model guidance in the days leading up to March 11 when forming a view.