| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 93% | 93¢ | 99¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Atlanta on March 10, 2026. It matters because aggregated market prices summarize real‑time expectations about the day's peak temperature, which is useful for weather‑sensitive decisions and hedging.
Atlanta in early March sits in a transitional season where warm spells, cold intrusions, and frontal passages can all occur, so day‑to‑day swings are common. Short‑range numerical weather models, recent observations, and mesoscale features (sea‑level pressure patterns, frontal timing, cloud cover) typically drive expectations for a specific calendar day.
Market prices represent the collective judgment of participants about which outcome will occur, not a guarantee; they update as new forecast models and observations arrive. Treat prices as a consensus signal and consult official meteorological sources for final verification.
The market will settle to the official observational source specified in the event rules; that is typically an authoritative meteorological dataset (for example an NWS/NOAA station) named on the market page. Check the event description and settlement rules to see the exact station/source used for this event.
Most markets use the highest air temperature observed during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated station, but exact timing and any timezone conventions are spelled out in the event's settlement rules—confirm those details on the event page.
Settlement typically occurs after the official observations are published and any verification or dispute window closes; that can be within hours to a few days after the observation date. The event page and settlement policy list the expected timeline and any finalization delays.
Units and bin definitions are specified on the market's outcome labels. The event page will state whether values are in °F or °C and how boundaries and rounding are handled—always refer to those labels and the settlement rules for exact conventions.
Traders commonly monitor short‑range deterministic models and ensembles (e.g., ECMWF, GFS and their ensembles), surface obs and trends at nearby stations, satellite imagery for cloud cover, radar for convection, and synoptic updates on frontal timing and low‑level wind fields; combining these gives the best short‑term signal for the day's maximum.