| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6.2% | 94% | 94¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Above 6.3% | 7% | 1¢ | 6¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 6.4% | 5% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
| Above 6.5% | 5% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
| Above 6.6% | 5% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $37 | Trade → |
| Above 5.8% | 98% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $36 | Trade → |
| Above 6.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.1% | 0% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.9% | 0% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0% | 0% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants trade on which range the official German unemployment rate will fall into for February 2026; the result is a timely indicator of labor-market strength that affects policymaking and market sentiment.
Germany's unemployment rate is produced regularly by national statistical authorities and reflects ongoing shifts in hiring, layoffs, seasonal employment, and migration. Recent years have shown how shocks—pandemic disruption, energy-price shocks, and global demand swings—can move the labor market, so the Feb 2026 reading will integrate those trends plus any country- or sector-specific developments that occurred since January.
Market prices aggregate traders' real-time expectations about which outcome will settle but are not a substitute for the official release; use them alongside official data releases, economic indicators, and news flows when forming a view.
The contract will specify its settlement source in the Kalshi contract description—commonly the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) or the national statistics office; check the contract terms to confirm which series and publication will be used.
Germany's monthly unemployment figures are normally released in the first days after the reporting month; the exact release date and time for February 2026 will be set by the reporting agency and should be confirmed via that agency or the contract's settlement schedule.
Whether the contract settles on a seasonally adjusted or unadjusted series is defined in the contract specifications—review the Kalshi description before trading, because seasonality can materially change short‑term readings.
Official series are sometimes revised; settlement follows the convention in the contract (e.g., first published number vs. revised series). Traders should read the settlement rules and monitor later revisions from the reporting agency that may not affect settlement if the contract uses the initially published figure.
Announcements such as major employer layoff or hiring plans, large collective-bargaining results, unexpected changes in industrial production or export data, abrupt energy-supply developments, and migration or asylum-policy changes are examples of events that can shift expectations ahead of the release.