| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 0.1 to 0.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 0.6 to 1.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.1 to 1.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.6 to 2.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2.1 to 2.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2.6 to 3.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.1 to 3.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.6 to 4.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.1 to 4.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.6 to 5.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5.1 to 5.5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5.6 to 6.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6.1 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on official GDP growth for the full year 2026; outcomes are useful for hedging macro risk and for reading collective expectations about the economy. Market prices aggregate diverse information and can move ahead of official statistics, making them a timely barometer of growth expectations.
GDP growth in 2026 will reflect the legacies of prior years' inflation, monetary tightening, fiscal decisions, and global trade dynamics. Historical patterns show that growth forecasts shift as quarterly data, employment, inflation, and business investment evolve; unexpected shocks (energy, geopolitics, supply chains) can also revise outlooks quickly.
Market odds indicate the consensus willingness of participants to back particular growth outcomes and update as new data or news arrive; they are not guarantees but a real-time synthesis of available information. Interpret prices as signals of market-implied likelihood and directional confidence, and monitor changes rather than any single snapshot.
This market is structured with 14 distinct outcomes that correspond to ordered GDP growth buckets (from the lowest growth bracket up to the highest); consult the market interface for the exact numeric boundaries and labels for each outcome to see which growth range each outcome represents.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement timing follows the market's rules and typically occurs after the relevant national statistics office publishes the official annual GDP figure or the specified release used by the market. Check the market's settlement documentation for the exact reference series and the delay between release and settlement.
Key signals include quarterly advance GDP releases, monthly employment reports, inflation measures (CPI/PCE), retail sales, industrial production, business investment and nonresidential construction data, trade balances, and leading indicators like PMIs; unexpected revisions to these series can materially change prospects for the annual GDP number.
Announcements such as changes in interest-rate guidance, large fiscal packages, major regulatory shifts, or rapid changes in fiscal balances can alter growth expectations and cause repricing: expansionary policy tends to push markets toward higher-growth outcomes, while contractionary policy or credibility concerns can shift probabilities toward lower-growth outcomes.
Active participants include macro traders, institutional investors, economists, and informed retail traders; common information drivers are official data releases, central bank communications, fiscal policy announcements, major geopolitical news, and proprietary forecasts or model updates from economic research groups.