| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.35 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.45 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.96 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.98 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.02 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.04 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.06 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.08 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.35 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.45 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which price range U.S. retail gasoline will fall into during March 2026; it matters because gasoline prices affect household budgets, inflation measures, and short-term economic activity.
Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. are driven mainly by global crude oil prices, domestic refinery capacity and utilization, seasonal demand patterns, and policy or supply shocks. Historically, March can be a transitional month as refiners switch to summer fuel blends and demand begins to rise ahead of spring and summer driving, so outcomes for March reflect both winter inventories and early-season demand shifts.
Market prices on Kalshi represent traders' aggregated expectations about which price range will be realized, and they update as new information arrives; interpret them as a snapshot of consensus expectations and information flow rather than a guaranteed forecast.
The contract will specify an authoritative price source and exact settlement rule on the event page and contract terms — typically an official national average retail gasoline price published by an institution such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration or another named index. Always check the market's resolution clause on Kalshi for the precise reference and publication date used for settlement.
This 11-outcome market is organized into discrete price-range buckets; each outcome corresponds to a specific interval of the U.S. retail gasoline price for March 2026. The event page lists the exact boundaries for each bucket and which bucket will be considered the winner once the official reference value is determined.
The market close and settlement dates will be listed on the Kalshi event page and contract terms (noting that the current status is TBD). Settlement typically occurs after the referenced agency publishes the official March value or after a predefined publication window; check the event page for updates on close and settlement timing.
Reported volume is an indicator of market activity and liquidity; higher traded volume generally means tighter bid-ask spreads and easier entry/exit for traders. Use volume together with order book depth and recent trade sizes on the platform to assess current liquidity conditions for this contract.
Key items to watch include weekly EIA and API gasoline and crude inventory reports, EIA monthly petroleum updates, crude futures (WTI/Brent) moves, refinery outage reports, OPEC+ announcements, major geopolitical news, regional weather forecasts affecting demand or supply, and U.S. economic indicators that influence fuel consumption.