| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which unemployment-rate outcome will prevail for France in Q1 2026; it matters because unemployment is a key indicator of economic health and influences policy, markets, and business decisions.
France's unemployment rate reflects interactions between cyclical growth, structural labor-market features, and policy choices; official figures are produced by INSEE and are watched by investors, policymakers, and employers. Q1 2026 outcomes will incorporate recent developments in the economy, labor reforms, sectoral hiring patterns, and any supply‑side shocks that occurred in late 2025 and early 2026.
Prediction market prices represent the collective expectations of participants and update as new information arrives; they are a real‑time signal, not a forecast guarantee, and should be interpreted alongside official data releases and economic analysis.
INSEE (the French national statistics office) publishes unemployment statistics; the exact Q1 2026 release date is set by INSEE's calendar and may appear in their monthly/quarterly release schedule — consult INSEE for the authoritative timetable.
This market presents ten distinct outcome options that partition possible reported unemployment results (for example discrete ranges or buckets); the event page lists the exact labels for each outcome so traders can select the category they expect will be reported.
A methodological or seasonal‑adjustment change can shift the level or comparability of the reported rate; when INSEE announces such changes, market participants typically reinterpret past series and the market will adjust to reflect the new measurement basis.
Watch quarterly GDP figures, business surveys (PMI, employer hiring intentions), payroll and social security employment data, unemployment benefit registrations and labor‑force participation trends, as well as major corporate layoff/hiring announcements.
Relatively low volume indicates limited liquidity and wider effective spreads, while ten outcomes mean the market is granular; traders should size positions conservatively, be mindful of order execution risk, and check current depth before placing large trades.