| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal GDP outcome France will register for the 2026 calendar year; it matters because nominal GDP combines output and prices and underpins fiscal, monetary, and market assessments.
Nominal GDP equals real economic activity adjusted for the price level, so its 2026 value will reflect both France’s real growth in that year and inflation. Recent years have seen shifting external demand, energy price volatility, and domestic policy changes that influence both components; statistical revisions and timing of data releases also affect what the final published number looks like.
Market odds summarize traders’ collective assessment of which discrete outcome is most likely given available information; prices move as new data and news shift expectations, but the market outcome will ultimately be determined by the official published figure and the market’s stated resolution rules.
Resolution depends on the market’s published rules; check the market page for the designated source and version (markets commonly reference official national accounts from INSEE or an agreed international series and specify whether preliminary or final annual figures apply).
The outcome timing follows the official reporting schedule: preliminary quarterly or annual estimates are released earlier, with final annual revisions published later — the market resolves according to the timing and dataset specified in its listing.
Each of the 14 outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive range or category defined on the market page; only the outcome whose range contains the official published nominal GDP value will settle as the winner.
Monitor INSEE releases and revisions, Banque de France commentary, Eurostat/OECD/IMF publications, major private-sector forecasts, and high-frequency indicators such as quarterly national accounts, inflation, employment, industrial production, and trade data.
Key drivers include quarterly national accounts and annual GDP releases, monthly inflation reports, significant fiscal announcements or one‑off transfers, ECB policy changes that affect inflation and exchange rates, major commodity or geopolitical shocks, and any unexpected statistical revisions.