| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the preliminary year-over-year inflation rate for France as reported for April 2026. This data point is a critical gauge of French economic health and serves as a key indicator for European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions.
France’s inflation is primarily measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the change in prices for a representative basket of goods and services. As a member of the Eurozone, France's domestic inflation trends are heavily influenced by broader European energy prices, supply chain dynamics, and the ECB's interest rate trajectory. Historical volatility in this index is often driven by shifts in fuel costs and government fiscal interventions.
Market participants use these contract prices to aggregate information about future inflationary expectations in France, effectively creating a decentralized consensus on economic outcomes.
The preliminary release, often referred to as the 'flash estimate,' is the first calculation of the monthly inflation figure released by INSEE, providing an early snapshot before final revisions are processed.
The data is published by INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), the national statistical institute of France.
Higher interest rates generally aim to dampen inflation by reducing consumer demand and business investment, which can lead to lower year-over-year price growth over time.
The market tracks the headline inflation rate as reported by INSEE, typically following the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for European cross-comparison.
This market specifically tracks the preliminary (flash) report for April 2026; subsequent revisions issued by INSEE after the initial release date do not change the outcome of this contract.