| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market focuses on the Federal Reserve's median dot plot that will be published with the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections. The dot plot is an important signal about how Fed policymakers view the appropriate path for the federal funds rate and can influence financial markets and expectations.
The dot plot is the collection of each FOMC participant's projections for the appropriate target federal funds rate over several horizons; the median of those dots is often highlighted as the committee's central tendency. Historically, market participants use the dot plot together with the Fed's statement, economic projections, and the Chair's press conference to interpret the likely policy path. The June 2026 release will update those projections in the context of the current inflation, growth, and labor market backdrop.
Prediction market odds for this event reflect traders' aggregated expectations about what the Fed's published median dot will indicate, not the Fed's deliberate decision. Use odds as a real-time snapshot of market consensus that can change as new economic data and Fed communications arrive.
The median dot plot is released as part of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections at the conclusion of the June 2026 FOMC meeting; the timing follows the Fed's official meeting schedule and is published alongside the policy statement and, typically, the Chair's press conference.
The median dot is the middle value of all FOMC participants' projections for the appropriate federal funds rate at each horizon; it represents the central tendency of policymakers' individual views, not a binding committee commitment.
Key influences include the most recent monthly inflation reports (PCE and CPI), the monthly employment report (payrolls and unemployment), GDP or nowcasting updates, and major retail or consumer spending releases that affect near-term growth and inflation expectations.
The dot plot itself is published once with the June SEP; it is not revised between meetings. The Fed can change policy later based on new data, but updated projection plots appear only at subsequent SEP publications tied to future FOMC meetings.
Differences reflect that the dot plot shows policymakers' survey expectations while market-implied rates incorporate trading behavior, risk premia, and instantaneous reactions to information. Traders typically monitor both the dot plot and market curves to assess communication gaps and potential market adjustments.