| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which Fed funds rate level will be in effect immediately after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September 2026; it matters because the Fed funds rate is the primary policy tool that influences borrowing costs, asset prices, and macroeconomic conditions. Traders use this market to express and aggregate views about monetary policy heading into that specific meeting.
The FOMC meets regularly to set the target range or level for the federal funds rate as part of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Outcomes at the September 2026 meeting will reflect the interplay of incoming inflation and labor-market data, recent economic growth readings, and the cumulative path of prior Fed actions and communications. Market participants will also weigh any signals in the Fed's dot plot, minutes, and speeches from Fed officials leading up to the meeting.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective assessment of traders about which rate bucket will prevail after the Sep 2026 meeting and will move as new data and Fed commentary arrive. Treat market prices as a real-time, evolving summary of expectations rather than an official forecast from the Fed.
It refers to the level or bucket of the federal funds rate as defined by the contract immediately following the FOMC decision and any official statement or effective rate announcement tied to that meeting; check the contract terms on Kalshi for the exact mapping of outcomes to rate ranges and the settlement rule.
This listing shows the close time as TBD; the final outcome will be determined according to the platform’s stated settlement rules after the FOMC releases its decision and relevant official data — consult the contract page for timing and settlement procedures.
Key moving events include monthly inflation reports (core and headline), the monthly employment report, the Fed’s Beige Book, the FOMC minutes and dot-plot updates, and any high-profile speeches or press conferences by the Fed Chair or voting members.
Look at patterns in how the Fed has responded to persistent misses on inflation versus employment in prior cycles: the Fed tends to act with several data points in hand, may signal intentions via the dot plot and communications in advance, and can both pause and resume tightening or easing depending on the incoming data flow.
Active participants include macro hedge funds, rate traders, institutional portfolio managers, economists publishing forecasts, and market makers; price moves are also driven by official economic releases, Fed communications, and large shifts in financial conditions.