| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which federal funds rate level will be in effect immediately after the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 policy meeting — a key indicator of U.S. monetary policy that affects borrowing costs, financial markets, and economic activity.
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the federal funds target at scheduled meetings; decisions reflect the Fed’s mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Since the early 2020s, rates have adjusted in response to pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and evolving labor-market conditions, so the Oct 2026 meeting will incorporate the cumulative data and communications up to that date.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective expectations of traders about which discrete rate outcome will hold after the Oct 2026 meeting; treat those prices as a market-implied view, not an official Fed forecast.
It refers to the federal funds target or target range as defined in the contract at the time immediately after the FOMC issues its decision and accompanying statement for the October 2026 meeting; check the event’s resolution rules on the platform for the precise definition and timing used to determine the winning outcome.
The event page lists the market close and settlement timing when they are set; because this listing currently shows 'TBD', settlement will follow the platform’s published procedure after the Fed’s public announcement and any specified observation window described in the contract.
The statement and dot plot update participants’ views of the committee’s outlook and path for rates, while the chair’s press conference clarifies intent and conditions; these communications can change market expectations quickly and are often the main drivers of moves in this type of market on announcement day.
High-frequency indicators such as monthly inflation readings (headline and core), payrolls and unemployment reports, consumer spending and retail data, and quarterly GDP releases are likely to have the largest impact, along with any large, unexpected financial-market dislocations or geopolitical events.
Use the market as a real-time, aggregated expression of trader expectations that complements official Fed communications and macro data; it can be used to gauge how investors price the balance of risks, but always cross-check contract definitions, settlement rules, and the latest Fed communications before drawing conclusions.