| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which federal funds rate will be in effect immediately after the Federal Reserve's March 2027 FOMC meeting; it matters because the Fed funds rate is the primary tool for U.S. monetary policy and influences borrowing costs across the economy.
The FOMC meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate and issues a post-meeting statement and, in many cases, a summary of economic projections. Between now and March 2027, incoming inflation, labor market data, growth reports, and Fed communications will shape expectations about whether the Committee raises, lowers, or holds the policy rate.
Prices on this market reflect how participants collectively update expectations about the post‑meeting policy rate; movements show changing assessments of the economic outlook and Fed reaction function, not guarantees of the actual outcome.
The market will settle to the federal funds rate value specified by the exchange's settlement rules as reflected in the Fed's official post‑meeting announcement or the operative rate cited by the market immediately after the March 2027 FOMC statement.
The 18 outcomes correspond to discrete rate buckets that span a range of plausible policy levels; consult the market page for the exact labels, boundaries, and any tie‑breaking or rounding rules defined by the exchange.
The FOMC as a body sets the target range; the Chair and voting members influence the decision through meetings, the post‑meeting statement, and any accompanying projections or press conference remarks that the exchange uses for settlement.
Key movers include monthly inflation reports (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment report (payrolls and unemployment rate), quarterly GDP releases, and other high‑frequency indicators such as ISM surveys and consumer spending, as well as any unexpected financial stress events.
Sharp moves reflect market participants updating expectations about policy at the March meeting; they indicate a shift in perceived odds among the discrete rate outcomes but can reverse as additional data or clarifying Fed communications arrive.