| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which federal funds rate will be in effect after the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 FOMC meeting. The outcome matters because the Fed funds rate guides short-term interest rates and influences borrowing costs, financial conditions, and economic activity.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets roughly every six weeks to set the target range for the federal funds rate; the March 2026 meeting is one scheduled decision point in that cycle. Markets and policymakers watch incoming inflation, labor market data, and Fed communications in the months leading up to the meeting to form expectations about any change in policy.
Market odds in this context represent the aggregated trading beliefs about which discrete post-meeting rate outcome is most likely given available information; they update as new data, Fed speeches, and global events arrive and reflect the market’s collective view rather than a fixed prediction.
Kalshi will settle the market to the federal funds rate value published in the Federal Reserve’s official post-meeting materials for the March 2026 FOMC meeting; consult Kalshi’s event page and settlement rules for the precise settlement reference and any tie-breaking procedures.
Settlement occurs after the Federal Reserve publicly releases its decision and supporting statement; the exact timestamp for final settlement is specified by Kalshi on the event page and may follow the Fed announcement by a short administrative interval.
The 11 discrete outcomes divide the plausible range of post-meeting federal funds rate settings into separate buckets so traders can express expectations for specific possible Fed decisions; each outcome corresponds to a distinct rate level or range as defined on the event page.
Key movers typically include periodic CPI and PCE inflation reports, monthly employment and unemployment data, quarterly GDP and consumption figures, and any unexpected data that materially changes the inflation or labor market outlook.
Primary influencers are FOMC members (especially the Fed Chair), market participants including traders and economists, large institutional investors, and external actors such as other central banks or major fiscal policy announcements that alter financial conditions.