| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which federal funds rate level will be in effect immediately after the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 FOMC meeting. Outcomes matter because the Fed funds rate guides borrowing costs across the economy and influences financial markets, inflation expectations, and investment decisions.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to set the federal funds target or target range; markets and policymakers have been responding to inflation dynamics, labor-market strength, and post-pandemic fiscal and monetary shifts. Since 2021 the Fed has moved through tightening and normalization phases, making each scheduled meeting a focal point for reassessing policy direction and the pace of future changes.
Odds in this market summarize traders’ aggregated expectations about the Fed’s announced post-meeting rate level but are not guarantees of the outcome. Use the market as a real-time indicator of consensus shifts while also consulting official Fed communications and data releases for policy rationale.
This market resolves to the federal funds target/range as officially announced by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of the June 2026 FOMC meeting; check the market’s settlement rules for whether it uses the stated target, the midpoint of a range, or another specified Fed publication.
Watch the FOMC statement, the Chair’s press conference, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released with the June meeting, and any speeches or testimony from Fed officials in the days leading up to the meeting.
Monthly data such as payrolls, CPI, and PCE readings, plus quarterly GDP and important Fed-commissioned indicators, can shift market expectations by changing the outlook for inflation and employment ahead of the FOMC decision.
Different markets handle ranges differently; some map announced ranges into the discrete outcome bins used in the market, while others reference a specified point (e.g., the midpoint) per their settlement rules — consult the event’s rules for the exact mechanism.
Key influences include the FOMC (collective voting members), the Fed Chair and regional presidents’ public remarks, major economic data releases, and large institutional traders whose positions and hedging can shift market-implied odds.