| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the federal funds rate (as specified by the contract) will be immediately after the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 FOMC meeting. The result matters because the Fed funds rate directly influences borrowing costs, asset prices, and expectations for the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets roughly every six weeks to set the target for the federal funds rate, guided by its dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. Markets trade expectations about that decision based on incoming inflation and jobs data, Fed communications (including the dot plot and press conference), and evolving macro or financial conditions.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants given public and private information; they are not guarantees but a summary of how participants price the range of possible Fed actions. Use those odds as a timely, market-based signal that updates as new data and Fed statements arrive.
It refers to the federal funds rate level used to resolve this contract immediately following the July 2026 FOMC meeting, according to the specific resolution rules on the contract page (typically the Fed’s announced target range or the effective federal funds rate as defined by the market operator). Check the contract resolution clause for the exact definition.
The outcome is determined after the FOMC issues its July 2026 decision and the contract’s resolution source is available; that normally occurs at the conclusion of the meeting when the Fed releases its statement (and, if applicable, the target range or subsequent official publication). Refer to the contract for the precise timing and any settlement conventions.
Monthly inflation reports (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment report (payrolls and unemployment), quarterly GDP, FOMC minutes, and speeches or testimonies by Fed governors are the primary drivers that can shift expectations ahead of July.
A sudden shock—such as a banking sector stress event, sharp commodity price move, or geopolitical escalation—can rapidly change risk premia and economic outlooks, prompting participants to reprice likely Fed actions and shifting market odds for the post-meeting rate.
Align hedge timing with the contract’s settlement mechanics, monitor the key data and Fed signals listed above, size positions to reflect your risk tolerance, and remember this market is one input among many (official Fed guidance, futures, swaps markets, and scenario analysis) when managing monetary policy exposure.