| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate (or target range) will be immediately after the January 2027 FOMC meeting. It matters because the Fed funds rate is the primary policy tool that influences borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and financial conditions across the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets regularly to set the target federal funds rate based on its assessment of inflation, employment, and broader economic conditions. Market expectations for the post-meeting rate reflect incoming data (inflation prints, payrolls, GDP), Fed communications (minutes, dot plot, press conference), and global developments that affect U.S. financial conditions. Over time the FOMC's framework, past rate path, and any changes to the operating regime can also shape how decisions are made.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective market view of which specific rate outcome will be in effect after the Jan 2027 meeting and will adjust as new information arrives. Treat market prices as a real-time indicator of expectations, not a guarantee of the official decision.
The winning outcome will be determined by the federal funds target rate or target range the Federal Reserve announces in its official post-meeting communication (FOMC statement/press release) for the policy level immediately after the Jan 2027 meeting, as recorded by the official Fed source cited in the market’s rules.
The market's close is listed as TBD; typically trading closes before the FOMC decision or when the designated resolution source is published. Settlement occurs after the Fed’s official announcement and any observation window specified in the market’s rulebook, once the exchange confirms the resolved outcome.
Monitor the FOMC statement, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) if released, the Chair’s press conference, and the release of meeting minutes; in the days before the meeting, key data releases (inflation, jobs, GDP) and Fed speeches also move expectations.
This market focuses on the announced federal funds target (or range). If the Fed signals a change to its operating framework or uses alternative tools, traders should read the official language closely and consult the market’s resolution rules, since such changes can introduce ambiguity about how the outcome will be recorded.
The 18 outcomes correspond to discrete candidate rate levels or ranges that the exchange lists to cover plausible post-meeting targets. Choose the outcome that best matches your expectation for the Fed’s announced target rate or range immediately after the January 2027 meeting; outcomes are mutually exclusive and only the one matching the official announcement will resolve as the winner.