| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which federal funds rate level will be in effect immediately after the Federal Reserve’s December 2026 policy meeting; it matters because the Fed funds rate is the primary tool for U.S. monetary policy and influences borrowing costs, inflation, and financial markets.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjusts the federal funds target or target range in response to incoming data on inflation, employment, and growth. Market participants continuously update expectations for policy after each data release and Fed communication; this market aggregates those expectations for the stance of policy following the Dec 2026 meeting.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which discrete rate outcome will be in effect after the meeting and change as new information arrives. Prices are not guarantees but a real-time synthesis of data, Fed signals, and trader risk preferences.
It will settle to the federal funds target level or range as officially announced by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of the Dec 2026 FOMC meeting; the outcome that corresponds to that announced level or range will be the winning contract according to the exchange's settlement rules.
The market is structured as 11 discrete outcome buckets, each representing a specific rate level or range; one bucket will be the winning outcome if the Fed's announced rate falls within its defined range. The market page provides the exact mapping of outcomes to rate ranges.
The listed trading close is currently TBD; the market will ultimately settle after the Fed issues its official statement at the end of the Dec 2026 meeting and the exchange verifies the announced rate. Check the market page for updates to the trading close and settlement timestamp.
Key items include monthly inflation reports (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment report (payrolls, unemployment, wages), GDP and consumption releases, FOMC minutes, speeches by Fed officials, and any episodes of financial market stress or major geopolitical events.
The Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed Chair and voting members) sets the federal funds target; their assessments of inflation, employment, and growth—and any shifts in committee composition or rhetoric—are the primary drivers of the announced rate and thus this market's outcome.