| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which federal funds rate will be in effect immediately after the Federal Reserve's April 2027 FOMC meeting; it matters because that rate sets short‑term borrowing costs and signals monetary policy stance to markets and the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee adjusts the federal funds target or target range at scheduled meetings to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Over recent years, the Fed has balanced inflation readings, labor market strength, and financial stability concerns when setting policy, and market expectations for any meeting reflect those evolving conditions. This event aggregates participant views about the Fed's policy stance immediately following the April 2027 decision.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views about which rate outcome is most likely given current information; they move as new data and Fed communications arrive. Use the market as a dynamic, crowd‑sourced complement to official Fed guidance and macroeconomic releases, not as a Fed statement substitute.
It refers to the federal funds rate level or target range that is in effect immediately following the April 2027 FOMC meeting as defined by the event's resolution rules; consult the event page for whether the market uses the Fed's announced target range, the effective federal funds rate, or another specified measure.
Resolution timing and the authoritative data source are specified on the event page and in Kalshi's resolution rules; typically resolution is based on the Fed's official post‑meeting statement, the FOMC projections released that day, or a published rate figure—check the event text for the exact rule.
Key releases include monthly PCE and CPI inflation prints, the monthly payrolls report (and unemployment rate), wage measures, quarterly GDP revisions, and high‑frequency indicators like ISM manufacturing/services and consumer sentiment; surprises relative to consensus often shift expectations.
Watch the FOMC statement, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), the Chair's press conference, official speeches by the Chair and other governors, and the minutes from prior meetings—language shifts or new economic projections can materially alter market expectations.
Common approaches include expressing a view on the most likely rate bucket, building ladders across adjacent outcomes to reflect uncertainty, reacting to incoming data and Fed comments, and managing risk with position sizing and diversification; traders treat the market as a real‑time aggregation of evolving information rather than a fixed forecast.