| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate (or target range) will be immediately after the April 2026 FOMC meeting — a key policy signal that affects borrowing costs, financial markets, and economic expectations.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly sets the federal funds target to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Markets price expectations for that target based on recent inflation and labor data, the Fed's communications and forecasts, and evolving economic and financial conditions; this particular contract offers a set of discrete outcomes outlining possible post-meeting rate levels.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants about which post-meeting rate outcome is most likely; treat them as a real-time consensus indicator that can change as new data and Fed guidance arrive, not as a guarantee of the final decision.
It resolves to the federal funds target rate or target range announced by the FOMC at the conclusion of the April 2026 meeting; resolution follows the exchange's stated rules for matching the Fed's published target or range in the official statement or press release.
This market lists a discrete set of outcome buckets corresponding to specific target rate levels or ranges; each outcome pays out if the Fed's announced post-meeting target falls into that bucket. Consult the event page for the exact labels and settlement definitions.
The FOMC statement and the Chair's press conference at the meeting are primary; the updated economic projections/dot plot and the minutes released later also influence expectations and may shift the market prior to or immediately after the meeting.
Monthly inflation releases (headline and core CPI, and the Fed-preferred PCE when available), the monthly employment report (payrolls, unemployment rate, wage gains), GDP updates and PMIs, and notable consumer spending or durable goods reports are among the most market-moving data points.
Participants can express a directional view on the near-term policy rate by buying outcomes that align with their expectation of the Fed's decision, or hedge duration and credit exposures by using this event alongside positions in bonds, swaps, or other instruments; always consider position sizing, liquidity, fees, and the exchange's settlement conventions.