| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of five outcomes will match the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) on the last business day of Q1 2026. The EFFR is a central short-term benchmark that affects borrowing costs, money markets, and broader financial conditions.
The Effective Federal Funds Rate is the overnight interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to each other and is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy stance and operations. Entering Q1 2026, expectations for the EFFR will be shaped by incoming inflation, labor market data, Fed communications, and balance-sheet and liquidity dynamics.
Market odds represent the collective view of which discrete outcome is most likely to match the official EFFR at the quarter end and will update as new data and policy signals arrive. They are market-implied expectations, not guarantees of the realized rate.
This market will resolve using the platform's stated official source for the Effective Federal Funds Rate on the last business day of Q1 2026; check the market rules for the exact data source and timestamp the platform uses for final settlement.
Key movers include FOMC meetings and minutes, Fed Chair and regional Fed speeches, monthly inflation releases (PCE, CPI), employment reports (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment), GDP and retail data, and large Treasury auctions that affect money-market liquidity.
An FOMC rate change sets the policy target range; the EFFR (a market overnight rate) typically moves toward that target quickly, but the exact end-of-quarter EFFR also depends on how the Fed implements policy through operations and how money-market participants respond.
Quarter-end demands for balance-sheet reporting, corporate tax and settlement flows, shifts in bank reserve balances, and heavy Treasury issuance can create temporary shortages or surpluses of intraday liquidity that push the EFFR above or below policy intentions.
Primary influencers include the Federal Reserve (Board and New York Fed Open Market Desk), large banks and their reserve management desks, money market funds, primary dealers, and the U.S. Treasury through its debt issuance and cash management.