| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve's policy decision will be at its September 2027 meeting; outcomes capture the possible interest-rate actions the Fed could announce. The result matters for borrowing costs, financial markets, and expectations about the economic outlook.
The Fed sets short-term interest-rate policy based on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment; decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee after reviewing incoming economic data and financial conditions. In the months leading up to September 2027, inflation trends, labor-market strength, growth reports, and global developments will shape committee deliberations and market expectations.
Prediction-market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of which discrete decision the Fed will announce at that meeting and update as new information arrives. Use the market as a real-time signal of how participants interpret incoming data and Fed communications, not as a formal forecast from the Fed itself.
The decision is announced at the conclusion of the Fed's September policy meeting on the date set in the Federal Reserve calendar; traders should watch the run-up (weekly and daily) for data releases and Fed communications that typically move expectations before the announcement.
The market lists a set of mutually exclusive outcome labels corresponding to the range of plausible Fed actions at that meeting (for example, various sizes of hikes, holds, or cuts). Check the market page to see the exact wording for each outcome and what constitutes a resolving event.
Key releases include the latest inflation measures (monthly CPI and PCE trends), the monthly jobs report (payrolls and unemployment), recent GDP or advance activity indicators, and any high-frequency indicators that alter near-term growth or inflation expectations.
Public comments by Fed governors or the chair, published minutes, and any shift in the Fed’s forward guidance can materially change expectations by clarifying the committee’s assessment of risks, the likely path of policy, or tolerance for inflation versus employment trade-offs.
Historically, the Fed has been data dependent and has tended to adjust policy gradually to avoid policy overshoot; compare current conditions to past episodes of similar inflation and labor-market dynamics to gauge how committee members historically balanced risks, but remember each cycle has unique aspects and uncertainties.