| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market reflects expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision at its September 2026 meeting; that decision has broad effects on interest rates, financial markets, and borrowing costs across the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to weigh its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment when setting policy. The September meeting is often important because it follows summer economic data releases and precedes the final quarter of the year, so incoming inflation, labor market, growth, and global developments shape the decision.
Odds in this market represent the market's collective view of which Fed action will occur in September 2026 and update as new data and communications arrive; they are market-implied expectations, not guarantees of outcome.
The Fed announces policy decisions immediately after the FOMC meeting; exact dates are set on the Fed calendar and this market's closing time is listed on the exchange event page (currently TBD), so monitor the official Fed schedule and the event page for updates.
This event's outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive policy options listed on the event page—check the contract wording for the exact outcome labels and the settlement rule that defines how each outcome is determined.
Key communications include the FOMC statement and minutes, the Chair's press conference, the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) if released, and speeches from regional Fed presidents and Board members that could signal shifts in policy thinking.
Critical releases—consumer price measures, personal consumption expenditures, monthly employment data, and GDP or activity indicators—can shift expectations by changing the outlook for inflation and labor-market slack, and thus move market odds.
Resolution depends on the contract's stated settlement criteria: typically the official FOMC statement or other specified Fed disclosures determine the outcome, and the exchange posts resolution timing and any clarifying details on the event page and rulebook.