| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which policy action the Federal Reserve will announce at its October 2026 FOMC meeting. The Fed's decision matters because it directly influences short-term interest rates, financial markets, and borrowing costs for households and businesses.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate and to issue policy guidance; October 2026 is one meeting in that ongoing policy cycle. Markets and policymakers enter that meeting with information from recent inflation and labor data, prior Fed communications, and evolving global financial conditions, all of which shape the committee's decision.
Market odds on this event summarize traders' aggregated views about which official action the Fed will announce, and they update as new data and Fed communications arrive. Treat the market as a real-time consensus signal, not a definitive prediction of what the Fed will do.
The market resolves to one of the five mutually exclusive policy outcomes listed on the event page, each representing a distinct official action announced at the October 2026 FOMC meeting (for example, different rate-change bands or a hold); consult the event page for the exact outcome labels.
Settlement is based on the official FOMC announcement or statement released following the October 2026 meeting; the platform's rules define the authoritative source and timing used to determine which outcome occurred.
The decision is made by the Federal Open Market Committee, which comprises the Board of Governors and Reserve Bank presidents (voting members at that time); the Chair’s role in communicating the decision is also influential for market interpretation.
Market-moving reports typically include the monthly national inflation measures (CPI and the personal consumption expenditures price index), the monthly employment report (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment), and key real activity indicators such as retail sales and manufacturing PMIs.
The official statement sets the immediate policy outcome that determines settlement; the dot plot and press conference provide additional forward guidance that can change traders’ expectations for future meetings and thus may shift prices in the minutes to come.