| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce at its March 2027 policy meeting; the result matters because the Fed’s decision shapes short-term interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial-market expectations.
The FOMC meets roughly eight times per year and March is a regular meeting where the Committee issues a policy statement, its updated outlook and often holds a press conference. The March decision will incorporate recent readings on inflation, labor markets and growth, plus Fed communications and any material international or financial shocks.
Market odds on this contract represent the collective view of traders about which stated outcome will occur and will update as new data or Fed communications arrive; use them as a real‑time gauge of market expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
The FOMC typically releases its policy statement on the scheduled meeting day (usually in mid‑March) and often at a set time announced on the Federal Reserve calendar; this Kalshi market will settle based on the official FOMC statement or other settlement conditions specified on the market page, so check the market’s rules for the exact settlement trigger and timing.
The market’s five discrete outcomes are shown on the market page; they commonly represent different policy moves or ranges (for example: hold, various-sized rate changes, or categorical outcomes). Refer to the market description for the precise wording and any tie‑breaking rules.
Key influences include the Fed Chair’s public comments and press‑conference answers, voting FOMC members and regional presidents, Board of Governors statements, and the data releases that policymakers cite in their deliberations.
Market participants closely watch personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and CPI inflation prints, the monthly payroll employment report, unemployment and wage measures, and high‑frequency indicators like retail sales and manufacturing surveys that can alter the Fed’s assessment of the outlook.
Unanticipated shocks can materially change the Fed’s policy calculus and prompt quick re‑pricing of expectations; while the market will reflect those new beliefs, settlement remains tied to the official FOMC outcome described in the market rules, and traders should monitor both news developments and any official changes to the Fed meeting schedule.