| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve will decide at its March 2026 policy meeting—an event that influences short-term interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial market pricing worldwide.
The Federal Reserve sets policy based on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment; the March meeting typically follows several monthly economic releases and public Fed communications. Market expectations entering March will reflect the cumulative data and Fed guidance since the start of 2026, as well as any shifts in inflation, labor markets, and financial conditions.
Odds in this market represent the collective view of traders about which discrete policy outcome the Fed will announce in March 2026; they update as new data and commentary arrive and should be read as real-time signals, not official Fed guidance.
This market resolves based on the official Fed decision announced at the March 2026 FOMC meeting; settlement timing follows the exchange’s confirmation of that official announcement and may occur shortly after the public statement and any accompanying press conference.
The five outcomes map to five mutually exclusive policy outcomes specified by the market (for example, discrete categories of the federal funds rate decision or size/direction of a policy change); check the market description for exact outcome labels and definitions.
Key pre-meeting releases include monthly inflation measures (headline and core), the employment report/payrolls, retail sales, and any GDP or durable goods updates that materially change the near-term inflation or growth outlook.
The Fed Chair’s remarks and the public comments of current FOMC voting members and influential regional Fed presidents are most watched; post-meeting minutes, the dot plot, and the press conference are also high-signal events.
Rapid moves reflect immediate market repricing to the official statement, press conference tone, and any surprises relative to expectations; they indicate how traders are revising odds in real time but can be volatile and influenced by liquidity and order flow, so interpret them as short-term signals rather than guarantees.