| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which monetary policy action the Federal Open Market Committee will announce at its July 2027 meeting. The Fed's July decision influences short-term interest rates, market pricing, and borrowing costs across the economy.
The FOMC holds regularly scheduled meetings throughout the year; the July meeting culminates in an official statement, any change to the federal funds target/range, and often updated economic projections and forward guidance. Market expectations entering July will reflect the run of inflation and labor-market data, recent Fed communications, and developments in financial and global markets.
Prices in this market aggregate traders' views about which of the five predefined outcomes will be announced in July 2027; price moves show how participants update those expectations as new data and communications arrive.
Settlement will be based on the official FOMC statement and any explicitly announced change to the federal funds target or range at the July 2027 meeting; the platform's market page and settlement rules specify the exact text or data point used for final determination.
The market currently shows a close of 'TBD'; the platform will publish a final trading cutoff and the settlement timestamp tied to the release of the Fed's July statement. Check the market's page for the definitive close and settlement timing once posted.
The five mutually exclusive outcomes correspond to different official policy outcomes labeled by the market creator (typically various sizes of rate increases, no change, or cuts); consult the market listing for the exact outcome labels and their definitions.
Key movers include monthly CPI and PCE inflation reports, the monthly U.S. employment report (nonfarm payrolls/unemployment/wages), the advance GDP release for Q2 2027, ISM/manufacturing surveys, retail sales, and any Fed minutes, speeches, or congressional testimony ahead of July.
Speeches, minutes, and testimony can shift trader expectations by clarifying policymakers' views on inflation, labor markets, and the policy path; material or credible changes in guidance are frequently reflected quickly in this market, so follow statements from the Fed chair, voting members, and the published minutes.