| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve will decide at its July 2026 policy meeting; that decision influences short‑term interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial markets. Traders use it to express expectations about the Fed’s policy path and to hedge or speculate on monetary policy outcomes.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate and to release a policy statement and economic projections. Historical Fed decisions respond to recent inflation, employment, and financial conditions; the July 2026 decision will be assessed in light of data and communications published in the weeks leading up to that meeting. Market participants will compare this meeting to prior FOMC actions and guidance to infer any shift in policy stance.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of traders about which outcome will be realized and update as new data and Fed communications arrive. They are a real‑time signal of market sentiment, not a guaranteed prediction of the eventual official decision.
The market covers the specific outcomes defined on the event page (check the outcome descriptions there). Typically such markets map to the FOMC’s announced policy action (e.g., a rate change, hold, or specific rate range) and sometimes to the content of the statement; consult the market's outcome definitions for the precise closure conditions.
The platform sets the market close time; in most cases trading closes shortly before the FOMC releases its statement and decision, but because this market lists 'Closes: TBD' you should monitor the market page for the exact closing time announced by the platform.
The decision is made by the FOMC as a whole, so the votes of all committee members matter; in practice, public signals from the Fed Chair and key voting members (including regional presidents who are voting members that year) and the Board of Governors often move market expectations.
Major releases—such as month‑to‑month inflation measures, the employment report, and GDP updates—can materially shift expectations by changing the Fed’s data backdrop; stronger‑than‑expected data tends to push expectations toward tighter policy, while weaker data tends to push them toward easier policy, subject to other developments.
The market creator specified five distinct outcomes to cover plausible Fed actions or statement variants; compare the outcome text to the FOMC’s possible actions (e.g., different magnitudes or directions of rate moves or specific language) and trade the outcome(s) that match your view of the most likely official announcement.