| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which monetary policy action the Federal Reserve will announce in its January 2028 decision; that outcome matters because Fed policy directly affects interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial market conditions.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets regularly to set the target for the federal funds rate and issue policy guidance; a January meeting often sets the tone for the coming year. Market participants watch recent inflation and labor data, Fed communications, and global developments to form expectations about the January decision.
Prediction market odds here show the market’s collective expectation for the labeled policy outcomes and update as new information arrives; they are a real‑time aggregation of views, not an official Fed forecast.
The market operator sets the closing time (currently listed as TBD); settlement timing and the exact settlement event are defined in the market rules—check the market page for the official closing and settlement details.
Markets of this type typically settle based on the Federal Reserve's official FOMC policy statement or the Fed's target rate announcement specified in the market rules; the market page lists the precise settling source to be used.
Each outcome label corresponds to a specific policy scenario defined on the market page (for example, holding the policy rate or changing it by specified increments); review the outcome labels to see the exact mapping used for settlement.
Key drivers include monthly inflation measures (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment report (payrolls and unemployment), GDP or activity surprises, and any high‑profile Fed speeches or minutes; unexpected financial or geopolitical shocks can also shift expectations quickly.
Decision‑makers are the FOMC members—Board of Governors, the Fed Chair and voting regional Fed presidents; influential inputs include Fed staff analysis, public speeches and testimony, and market participants interpreting those communications.