| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how the Federal Reserve will set policy at its December 2027 FOMC meeting; the outcome selected reflects the committee's decision on interest-rate policy. The result matters because the Fed's policy choice influences borrowing costs, financial markets, and macroeconomic expectations heading into 2028.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate and to communicate its economic outlook; December is the final scheduled meeting of the year and often incorporates staff forecasts and year-end assessments. Recent cycles have seen the Fed weigh inflation dynamics, labor-market strength, and global financial conditions, all of which will inform deliberations in December 2027.
Market prices on Kalshi aggregate traders' expectations about the December 2027 FOMC decision and update as incoming data or Fed communications change perceived odds; they are not official Fed guidance but a real-time read on market beliefs.
The Fed announces its policy decision at the end of the scheduled December FOMC meeting; the official date is set in the Fed’s public meeting calendar, and timing (including any press conference) follows that schedule.
This Kalshi market presents five distinct outcome labels that correspond to alternative policy actions or rate-change magnitudes for the December 2027 meeting; consult the market page for the precise text of each listed outcome.
The Federal Open Market Committee as a whole makes the decision, comprising the Board of Governors and the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents who vote that year; the Fed Chair sets the meeting agenda, chairs the discussion, and typically holds the post-meeting press conference.
Key data include monthly employment reports, inflation measures (CPI and the Fed’s preferred PCE), recent GDP or advance activity reports, retail and consumer indicators, and high-frequency financial-market signals; unexpected shifts in any of these can alter the Fed’s assessment prior to the meeting.
Changes in the policy statement’s language, shifts in the FOMC projections or ‘dot plot,’ and tone or specifics from the Chair’s press conference are high-signal events for intent; traders typically adjust positions in response to wording changes or new guidance that affect expectations about the committee’s policy path.