| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve will do to its policy rate at the December 2026 FOMC decision and aggregates trader expectations about that outcome. The result matters because the Fed's rate choice influences borrowing costs, financial markets, and the economy heading into 2027.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate under its dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. December meetings typically include a policy decision, updated economic projections (the 'dot plot'), and often a press conference by the Chair, so the meeting can influence expectations for the coming year. Market participants will be assessing the run of inflation, labor-market indicators, growth data, and financial conditions that arrive in the months and weeks before the meeting.
Market odds in this context represent the market's consensus view—in dollar-implied terms—about which discrete policy outcome the Fed will choose in December 2026; they update as new data and Fed communications arrive. Treat these odds as a real-time signal that combines public information, risk sentiment, and traders' hedging rather than an immutable forecast.
Outcomes are tied to mutually exclusive FOMC policy actions specified in the market (for example: raise, cut, or hold the target rate, sometimes with different magnitudes). Consult the market's outcome descriptions to see how each label maps to a specific change (or no change) in the federal funds target.
Key items include monthly inflation reports (CPI and personal consumption expenditures), the monthly employment report (payrolls and unemployment), retail sales and industrial production, the quarterly GDP releases, and the Fed's own communications and minutes; these releases arrive in the months and weeks leading into December and often move expectations.
Official signals from the Fed Chair and voting FOMC members carry the most weight, followed by speeches from influential regional bank presidents, the release of the Fed's minutes and the Summary of Economic Projections, and any unscheduled comments that clarify policy intent or risks.
Tighter financial conditions (rising yields, wider spreads, or bank stress) can amplify downside risks to growth and lead the Fed to delay or reverse tightening plans; looser conditions can reduce perceived need for further action. The Fed assesses these channels when setting policy.
Historical December meetings are useful for understanding process—such as whether the Fed updates its projections or holds a press conference—but they don't determine this year's decision. Each December decision reflects the recent path of data, evolving risks, and the committee's current assessment, so history informs context but is not determinative.