| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fed maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Federal Reserve will decide at its April 2026 policy meeting; that decision influences short‑term interest rates, market yields, and borrowing costs across the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate and communicate its view of the economy. April 2026 is one of the FOMC's scheduled meetings and will reflect incoming data on inflation, employment, and growth since the prior meeting, as well as any shifts in the Fed's policy outlook.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants' views about which specific FOMC action will be announced; they are a real‑time signal that updates as new data and Fed communications arrive, not a guaranteed forecast.
The FOMC typically announces its decision at the conclusion of its April meeting, with the policy statement released and a press conference scheduled shortly thereafter; the event page will list the market's official close and settlement timing (currently listed as TBD), so check that page for updates.
This market offers five mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to the FOMC policy actions defined on the event page; consult the event's outcome list for the exact wording and how each outcome maps to specific changes (or no change) in policy.
Key items include monthly inflation reports (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment/payrolls report, GDP releases and revisions for the first quarter, the Fed's minutes and any speeches from FOMC participants, plus unexpected developments in financial markets or major international events.
Settlement follows the event's specified rules and the official Fed communications; if the Fed takes a non‑standard action or issues ambiguous language, market administrators will follow the event's arbitration and settlement procedures described on the platform—monitor updates from the event page for clarifications.
Statements from the Fed Chair and the most recent voting members of the FOMC are particularly influential, along with regional Fed presidents who currently hold votes; minutes from prior meetings and any recent public speeches provide context on the committee's thinking.