| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 to 1.16 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.03 to 1.09 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.17 to 1.23 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.24 to 1.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.30001 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.02999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether February 2026 will register an increase in temperature according to the contract's specified metric; it matters because February temperature outcomes feed into seasonal climate assessments, energy demand forecasting, and short-term climate anomaly monitoring.
Recent years have seen a warming backdrop from long-term anthropogenic climate change combined with strong interannual variability driven by phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña and polar circulation changes. The contract on KALSHI offers six mutually exclusive outcomes and currently shows active trading with $11,611 in volume; resolution timing and the exact outcome thresholds are set by the contract terms on the event page.
Market prices aggregate trader beliefs and incoming evidence about meteorology and observations; treat prices as a summary of expectation that updates as new forecasts and observational data arrive, not as scientific certainties.
The six outcomes are the mutually exclusive contract labels defined on the market page (typically a set of categorical ranges or thresholds). Consult the event description on KALSHI to see the precise wording and boundary conditions for each outcome.
Resolution follows the contract's stated resolution source and methodology; the event page specifies which observational dataset and baseline period will be used, so check that text to know exactly which measurements will determine the winning outcome.
The market's close is listed as TBD on the page; in many contracts closure aligns with the publication of the resolving dataset or a fixed calendar cutoff. Any official changes to timing would be posted on the contract page and by the exchange.
Long-term warming raises the baseline around which monthly variability operates, increasing the frequency of warmer months over decades, while short-term factors like ENSO, storm tracks, and polar circulation determine the month-to-month departures from that baseline.
Participants include individual traders, analysts, and sometimes institutional players; the traded volume provides a sense of liquidity—higher volume typically means easier execution and faster incorporation of new information, but volume alone does not guarantee forecast accuracy.