| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the European Central Bank will set policy rates at its March Governing Council meeting; outcomes map to alternative announced rate actions. The decision matters because it influences borrowing costs across the euro area and signals the ECB's stance on inflation and growth.
The ECB's Governing Council meets regularly to set key policy rates and assess macroeconomic risks under its price-stability mandate. Recent cycles around ECB decisions have been shaped by inflation readings, growth momentum, energy prices, and the central bank's communication about the path of policy. Market participants use those signals to update expectations ahead of the March decision.
Market prices here represent the collective, real-time assessment of traders about which official announcement the ECB will make in March; they move as new data and comments arrive. They are not an official forecast from the ECB and should be interpreted as evolving market sentiment rather than a guarantee of the outcome.
The listing currently shows the close time as TBD; the platform will update the market page with a specific closing time and send any configured notifications. Check the market page regularly for the official close.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific rate-action label or range defined in the market description (for example: unchanged or various magnitudes of change). Refer to the market’s outcome labels and definition on the platform for the precise mapping used to settle the event.
Settlement will be based on the ECB’s official published decision (the policy-rate announcement and the ECB press release). If the announcement is ambiguous relative to the market’s outcome definitions, the platform’s published resolution rules will govern settlement.
The ECB Governing Council—composed of the ECB President, Vice-President, and the governors of national central banks—collectively decides policy. Public remarks and voting patterns from those officials, especially the President, are closely watched for guidance.
Key items include euro-area HICP inflation releases (headline and core), PMI and other activity indicators, labour-market reports, scheduled speeches or minutes from ECB officials, and significant moves in energy prices or major geopolitical developments.