| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the Euro area's annual inflation rate for March 2026, as reported by Eurostat's flash estimate. This metric is a primary gauge of consumer price stability within the Eurozone and heavily influences European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy.
The Euro area inflation rate is calculated using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services. Since the post-pandemic inflationary spike, the ECB has focused on returning inflation toward its medium-term target of 2%. March 2026 data will reflect the long-term impact of previous interest rate cycles and prevailing energy and supply chain conditions.
Market participants aggregate expectations regarding macroeconomic trends, energy shocks, and wage growth to determine the likelihood of the final inflation reading falling into specific ranges.
The data is derived from the official Eurostat 'Flash Estimate' of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Euro area.
The Flash estimate is released roughly at the end of the reference month and provides the first, most timely look at inflation; it is widely considered the most market-moving version of the data.
No, this market covers only the Euro area, which includes the member states that have adopted the euro as their currency.
The ECB targets 2% inflation; if current market data trends toward that target, it suggests monetary policy is successfully anchoring expectations.
This market is settled based on the flash estimate released by Eurostat, not subsequent revisions.