| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the Eurostat flash estimate for the year-over-year Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Euro area for April 2026. This metric serves as the primary gauge for price stability in the Eurozone and is a critical input for European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions.
The Euro area inflation rate is calculated based on a weighted average of HICP indices across member states. The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2%, and this flash estimate provides the first glimpse into whether price pressures are aligning with that objective. Historical data shows that energy costs, supply chain fluctuations, and labor market dynamics are recurring drivers of these periodic readings.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of where the final flash estimate will fall, accounting for ongoing macroeconomic trends and market consensus forecasts.
The flash estimate is an early statistical report released by Eurostat, providing a preliminary calculation of inflation before all national data points are fully finalized.
The Governing Council of the ECB utilizes these inflation figures to adjust key interest rates and liquidity measures to keep inflation at their 2% target.
YoY stands for 'year-over-year,' comparing the price level of the consumer basket in April 2026 to the price level of the same basket in April 2025.
No, this market is specific to the 'Euro area,' which includes only those member states that have adopted the euro as their currency.
This market resolves based on the flash estimate release; subsequent revisions to the data by Eurostat typically do not retroactively alter the market outcome.