| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,980 to 2,019.99 | 23% | 20¢ | 23¢ | — | $319 | Trade → |
| $1,940 to 1,979.99 | 19% | 20¢ | 22¢ | — | $64 | Trade → |
| $2,060 to 2,099.99 | 9% | 4¢ | 9¢ | — | $48 | Trade → |
| $2,020 to 2,059.99 | 17% | 15¢ | 16¢ | — | $48 | Trade → |
| $1,900 to 1,939.99 | 12% | 11¢ | 17¢ | — | $37 | Trade → |
| $2,100 to 2,139.99 | 5% | 2¢ | 5¢ | — | $22 | Trade → |
| $1,860 to 1,899.99 | 4% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $16 | Trade → |
| $1,820 to 1,859.99 | 9% | 2¢ | 6¢ | — | $16 | Trade → |
| $1,460 to 1,499.99 | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| $2,180 to 2,219.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,180 to 1,219.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,220 to 1,259.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,260 to 1,299.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,340 to 1,379.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,300 to 1,339.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,380 to 1,419.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,420 to 1,459.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,500 to 1,539.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,580 to 1,619.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,340 to 2,379.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,420 to 2,459.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,580 to 2,619.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,460 to 2,499.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,500 to 2,539.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,660 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,780 to 1,819.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,140 to 2,179.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,300 to 2,339.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,380 to 2,419.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,620 to 2,659.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,139.99 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,260 to 2,299.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,740 to 1,779.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,540 to 2,579.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,140 to 1,179.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,540 to 1,579.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,660 to 1,699.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,620 to 1,659.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,700 to 1,739.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,220 to 2,259.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which price range Ethereum (ETH) will be in at 5:00 PM Eastern on March 4, 2026; it matters because traded outcomes aggregate market expectations about ETH’s value at a fixed timestamp. Traders use it to express views, hedge exposures, or signal near-term sentiment.
Ethereum is a major smart-contract platform whose price history has been shaped by supply changes (e.g., EIP-1559 burning), the transition to proof‑of‑stake, and evolving staking dynamics. Broader crypto market trends, macro financial conditions, regulatory news, and protocol upgrades have historically driven sharp moves around specific dates and times.
Prediction‑market prices for each outcome reflect how traders currently value the chance ETH will fall into each price bin; they are a realtime consensus that can move quickly with new information. Treat these prices as a snapshot of market-implied expectations rather than fixed probabilities.
Settlement follows the contract specifications on Kalshi: the referenced price source and exact timestamp used to determine which price bin wins are listed on the market page. Consult the market’s contract details for the authoritative resolution method and any tie‑break rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined, mutually exclusive price bin with explicit upper and lower boundaries shown on the market page; check that listing to see the exact numeric ranges and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
The market’s resolution policy specifies fallbacks (for example an alternate data feed, an averaged window, or administrative procedures). Review the contract’s resolution and force‑majeure clauses on Kalshi for the exact fallback hierarchy.
Catalysts include large on‑chain transfers or exchange flows, last‑minute regulatory announcements, major protocol fixes or vulnerability disclosures, macro releases or central‑bank decisions, and concentrated derivatives expiries that trigger liquidations.
Use it as a tradable expression of short‑term ETH price expectations and a complement to spot/derivatives prices. Align positions with the contract’s settlement rules, consider bin granularity and liquidity when sizing trades, and hedge via spot or options if you need specific exposure through the settlement time.