| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,900 or above | 85% | 83¢ | 85¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $2,020 or above | 30% | 29¢ | 30¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $1,980 or above | 51% | 48¢ | 50¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $1,860 or above | 88% | 91¢ | 93¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $1,940 or above | 71% | 68¢ | 71¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $2,180 or above | 4% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $416 | Trade → |
| $2,100 or above | 9% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $372 | Trade → |
| $2,140 or above | 6% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $312 | Trade → |
| $2,060 or above | 17% | 13¢ | 15¢ | — | $146 | Trade → |
| $1,820 or above | 94% | 94¢ | 97¢ | — | $91 | Trade → |
| $1,780 or above | 96% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $70 | Trade → |
| $1,140 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,180 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,260 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,220 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,340 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,420 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,460 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,540 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,460 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,420 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,340 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,380 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,580 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,540 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,620 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,660 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,260 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,660 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,220 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 40¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,740 or above | 0% | 80¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,580 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,380 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,700 or above | 0% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,620 or above | 0% | 21¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the USD price of Ether (ETH) will be at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time on March 4, 2026; it matters because traders and hedgers can express views or manage risk around a specific timestamp. Outcomes settle based on the price observation at that exact moment (or the settlement method defined by the platform).
Ethereum's spot price reflects a mix of on-chain fundamentals (network activity, staking flows, protocol upgrades) and off-chain drivers (macro conditions, regulatory news, and crypto market sentiment). Historical episodes show that single events — exchange outages, major liquidations, or regulatory announcements — can create outsized moves at precise timestamps. Because this market fixes on a specific minute, short-term liquidity and news flow around that minute become particularly important.
Prediction market odds represent the collective judgment of traders about which discrete price bucket will hold at the settlement timestamp; they are a continuously updating aggregation of sentiment, not a guaranteed forecast. Interpret odds as a tool for comparing relative market views and for assessing prevailing expectations around the event.
Settlement uses the price source and methodology specified in the market's rules on the KALSHI page; that will state whether settlement uses a single exchange quote, an index, or a time-weighted average and how disputes are handled.
Each of the 40 outcomes corresponds to a discrete ETH price interval or bucket defined on the market page; the exact numeric boundaries for every bucket are listed with the outcomes and determine which option wins at settlement.
The listed close time is TBD; trading typically closes at the platform-specified cutoff and settlement occurs after the target timestamp once the official price is confirmed according to the market's settlement rules.
Material events include large exchange order-flow or liquidations, sudden regulatory or legal announcements, major macroeconomic releases, or infrastructure outages on major exchanges or index providers within that hour.
Review past instances where ETH was measured at a fixed timestamp—especially around upgrades, expiries, or macro events—to assess typical intraday volatility, liquidity patterns, and how quickly prices have moved into adjacent buckets; use that to guide position sizing and risk limits.