| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,090 or above | 23% | 22¢ | 25¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $1,970 or above | 82% | 84¢ | 87¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $1,890 or above | 94% | 94¢ | 98¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $1,930 or above | 94% | 90¢ | 95¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $2,010 or above | 64% | 64¢ | 65¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $2,170 or above | 7% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $745 | Trade → |
| $2,130 or above | 10% | 8¢ | 11¢ | — | $637 | Trade → |
| $2,050 or above | 43% | 42¢ | 46¢ | — | $490 | Trade → |
| $1,850 or above | 76% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $84 | Trade → |
| $2,210 or above | 4% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $83 | Trade → |
| $1,810 or above | 98% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $77 | Trade → |
| $2,490 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,610 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,570 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,690 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,370 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,410 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,490 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,770 or above | 0% | 20¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,290 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,810 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,330 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,250 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,370 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,650 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,610 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,530 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,330 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,450 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,690 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,410 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,450 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,570 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,770 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,650 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,290 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,530 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,730 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2,250 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 46¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $1,730 or above | 0% | 31¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the U.S. dollar price of one Ethereum (ETH) will be at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 11, 2026; it matters because it lets traders express views, hedge exposure, and aggregate market expectations for that exact timestamp.
The market is hosted on KALSHI and offers 40 discrete outcomes capturing different ETH price ranges at the settlement moment. Ethereum’s price behavior reflects both crypto-specific drivers (on‑chain activity, staking flows, DeFi demand, ETF or custodial product news) and broader macro conditions (interest rates, risk appetite, USD strength). Historical protocol changes (e.g., the Merge and EIP-1559 supply dynamics) and past volatility mean short-term prices can move rapidly in response to news.
Market odds on this page represent the collective view of traders about where ETH will trade at the specified timestamp and can shift as new information arrives; interpret them as a real-time aggregation of sentiment, not a guaranteed forecast.
The market settles to the USD spot price of one ETH at 5:00 PM EDT on March 11, 2026 as defined by the market’s settlement rule; check the market's official settlement definition to see the precise reference (e.g., which index or exchange average is used).
KALSHI specifies the settlement sources in the market rules—commonly an aggregated index or a set of major spot exchanges; consult the market's rule text on the KALSHI page to see the named data providers and tie‑breaking procedures.
The market page shows the trading close time; if it is listed as TBD, trading may remain open until a platform‑specified cut‑off or until shortly before settlement—verify the exact cut‑off on the KALSHI market page to avoid last‑minute exposure.
Each of the 40 outcomes corresponds to a discrete price bucket or exact price point displayed on the market interface; with 40 outcomes the buckets are relatively granular—review the outcome labels on the market to see the upper and lower bounds for each option.
Key movers include unexpected central bank announcements, major regulatory rulings affecting crypto access, approvals or denials of institutional products (ETFs, custody), large on‑chain transfers or staking withdrawals by major holders, exchange outages or large futures liquidations, and significant protocol upgrades or network disruptions.