| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $2,045.39 | 33% | 30¢ | 33¢ | — | $172 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Ether (ETH) will finish higher or lower over a 15‑minute interval; it matters because ultra-short windows highlight immediate market sentiment and microstructure effects that can differ from longer-term trends.
Ethereum is a highly traded crypto with frequent intraday volatility driven by trading flows, protocol updates, and cross‑market correlations. Fifteen‑minute contracts are popular with traders who want to express near‑instant views or hedge very short exposure, and outcomes can move quickly as new orders hit the book or news arrives.
Market odds on this contract reflect the aggregated bets and order flow of participants and should be read as real‑time sentiment for this specific 15‑minute interval, not as a long‑term forecast; odds can change rapidly as liquidity and trades update.
The window is defined by the precise start timestamp listed in the market terms on KALSHI and runs for 15 minutes from that timestamp; consult the event page for the official start time and any pre‑lock period.
Settlement compares the reference ETH price at the contract’s defined end time to the reference price at the defined start time as specified in the market rules; the market terms on KALSHI state the exact comparison logic and any tie rules.
KALSHI uses the price source listed on the event page or in the market terms; check that field to see whether they use a single exchange feed, an aggregated index, or another official reference.
Because the interval is short, a large market or sweep order can move the reference price materially, and thin books can amplify moves and spread‑related slippage, meaning single trades may disproportionately influence the outcome.
'TBD' indicates the platform has not published a final close/lock time yet; monitor the KALSHI event page and your account notifications for updates, and expect the market to lock shortly before the published start time once KALSHI sets it.