| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $2,045.51 | 64% | 64¢ | 68¢ | — | $565 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Ethereum (ETH) reference price will be higher or lower across a specific 15‑minute interval; it matters because ultra‑short markets capture immediate sentiment and liquidity shifts that affect traders and automated strategies.
Ethereum is a highly liquid and widely traded crypto asset whose minute‑to‑minute price can move on order‑flow, liquidations, high‑frequency trading, or breaking news. Fifteen‑minute contracts are designed to isolate microstructure and news‑reaction risk rather than long‑term fundamentals, and historically they show greater noise and sensitivity to single large trades or short‑lived announcements. Participants should treat outcomes as indicators of short‑term market dynamics, not long‑run forecasts.
Market prices/odds aggregate participant expectations and the balance of buy/sell interest; in a 15‑minute ETH market they mainly reflect short‑term directional bets, liquidity conditions, and immediate news flow rather than structural valuation.
The official start and end timestamps are set by the event listing on KALSHI; the 15‑minute measurement begins at that published start time and ends 15 minutes later — check the event detail page for the precise UTC timestamps used for settlement.
Outcome is determined by comparing the official reference price at the published start timestamp to the official reference price at the published end timestamp; whether ties or edge cases result in refunds or a particular resolution method is specified in the event's settlement rules on KALSHI.
KALSHI specifies the settlement price source for each event in the event details and rulebook — consult that page to see whether a single exchange, an index, or an aggregated feed will be used for this market.
Resolution under operational disruptions follows KALSHI's contingency and force‑majeure rules as published for the event; these rules explain fallback feeds, delayed resolution, or alternative procedures, so review them before trading.
Low total volume indicates limited liquidity: prices can swing more from individual trades, spreads may be wide, and market prices may be less informative about broader sentiment; traders should account for higher price impact and execution risk when volume is small.