| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $2,039.52 | 47% | 44¢ | 47¢ | — | $334 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Ether (ETH) will be higher or lower 15 minutes after the market's specified start time, offering a very short-horizon bet on price direction. It matters for traders and liquidity providers who focus on minute-scale price moves and market microstructure.
Fifteen-minute direction markets reflect immediate sentiment rather than long-term fundamentals; in crypto, minute-scale price action is frequently driven by large orders, liquidations, automated trading, and breaking news. These short windows are more sensitive to single large trades and technical issues than daily or weekly markets. This market is hosted on KALSHI and resolves according to the platform's posted resolution source and timestamps.
Market prices represent the collective view of participants about the likelihood of an upward move over the 15-minute window and can change rapidly as new information or trades arrive. For ultra-short events like this, interpret prices alongside liquidity and recent trade activity rather than as stable long-term signals.
Outcome resolution follows the market's posted rules on KALSHI: it compares the designated ETH reference price at the market's official start timestamp to the reference price 15 minutes later using the specified exchange or feed. Check the market page for the exact reference source, timestamps, and tie-break or fallback procedures.
The 15-minute window begins at the market's official start time shown on the market page; that timestamp is the reference point for the interval. If the page shows 'Closes: TBD' or no start is visible, consult the market details or KALSHI notifications for the scheduled start and close times.
A low cumulative volume implies limited liquidity: individual trades can move the market price materially, slippage may be substantial for larger orders, and the displayed price may reflect a narrow set of participants rather than broad consensus. Treat positions as higher risk and size orders accordingly.
Yes. If the designated reference feed fails or is disputed, KALSHI's resolution and dispute procedures (linked on the market page) determine the outcome, which may include fallback sources or administrative resolution. Review those procedures before trading to understand potential edge cases.
It can be used for short-term hedging or speculation, but suitability depends on your tolerance for execution risk, timing precision, fees, and low market depth. Scalpers and hedgers should account for slippage, latency between trade execution and the official timestamps, and the possibility that a single large trade can move the market.