| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $1,933.23 | 65% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $328 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Ether (ETH) will be higher or lower across a 15-minute interval; it matters to traders and hedgers who want to express or manage views on very near-term price moves.
Fifteen-minute markets focus on market microstructure and immediate order flow rather than longer-term fundamentals. ETH can move quickly on news, large trades, on-chain flows, or exchange-specific events, so short-interval markets typically reflect rapid liquidity and sentiment shifts.
Market odds are an aggregated, real-time signal of traders' expectations for ETH over the specified 15-minute window; interpret them as an indicator of market consensus, not a guaranteed outcome.
It measures whether the reference ETH price specified in the event contract is higher or lower after the 15-minute interval compared to the start of that interval; consult the event contract for the official resolution rule.
The precise start and close timestamps are listed on the event page and in the market's contract details on KALSHI; those official timestamps determine which 15-minute interval is used for settlement.
The event's contract specifies the price source or index used for settlement; check the event rules to see the named exchange(s), aggregation method, and exact timestamp used as the reference price.
Execution costs can materially affect realized returns: wide spreads or low liquidity can cause your fill price to differ from the settlement reference, so account for fees and expected slippage when placing trades.
Past short-interval volatility and recurring intraday patterns can inform expectations about typical move sizes, but each 15-minute interval is driven by current order flow and news, so historical patterns are only one input and not determinative.