| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $2,115.78 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Ether (ETH) will reach the specific price level $2,115.78 during a designated 15‑minute observation window; markets like this matter because they isolate very short‑term price action and can be used to express views on intraday volatility or hedge event risk.
Short interval targets for ETH capture extreme intra‑day moves driven by order‑flow, news, and liquidity changes rather than longer‑term fundamentals. ETH price behavior is influenced by macro conditions (e.g., risk‑on/off flows and rates), on‑chain events (protocol upgrades, staking/withdrawal flows), and concentrated activity from large traders or exchanges. Because this contract is tied to a very narrow time window, small differences in data feeds or execution timing can change the outcome.
Odds quoted in this market represent the market consensus about the chance that ETH will reach the specified level within that 15‑minute window; they update as new information (news, order‑book moves, large trades) arrives and are best read as real‑time sentiment rather than long‑term forecasts.
The contract will resolve according to the platform's resolution rules: the reference price for ETH must meet the event's criterion (e.g., equal or cross the specified level) at some point during the designated 15‑minute observation window defined in the market rules. Exact tie‑breaking, rounding, and inclusivity conventions are set in the event's official resolution terms.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet scheduled the specific start/end timestamps for the 15‑minute window; the start and end times will be published on the event page once KALSHI schedules the market. Traders should check the event page for the official timestamps before trading.
The market uses the reference price source specified in its resolution rules (for example, an index or a set of exchanges). The exact feed and any aggregation rules are listed in the event's official terms on the platform; consult those rules to know which data source governs settlement.
Historical intraday volatility and the frequency of short‑window spikes give context: highly volatile periods show more frequent 15‑minute swings large enough to cross specific price levels, while calm markets make such short‑window hits unlikely. Traders should examine recent 15‑minute high/low distributions and recent news flow to judge how achievable the target is in a short interval.
With no trading activity and an unresolved schedule, assess liquidity risk and the possibility that the market may be thin when it opens. Review the official resolution terms, monitor the event page for scheduling announcements, consider order size relative to expected depth, and be prepared for price impact and slippage in short‑window contracts.