| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $1,993.93 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Ethereum (ETH) will reach the price target of $1,993.93 within a specific 15-minute measurement period. It matters because short, high-resolution price events can be driven by liquidity, news, and automated trading and are relevant for traders who trade around intraday moves or event-driven risk.
Short-window price targets like this isolate brief price action rather than end-of-day levels, so they emphasize intraday liquidity and sudden catalysts. Historically, ETH 15-minute swings can be driven by large exchange flows, derivatives liquidations, protocol announcements, or broader crypto market moves tied to Bitcoin and macro headlines. Because the outcome depends on a narrow time window, small differences in data source, timestamping, or exchange outages can change settlement results.
Market prices on this event represent the collective view of traders and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time indicator of market sentiment about whether ETH will hit the stated level during the 15-minute window. Interpret them alongside order-book conditions, scheduled events, and the platform's settlement rules rather than as fixed forecasts.
The market is resolved based on whether the official reference price for ETH, as defined in the event's settlement rules, reaches or exceeds $1,993.93 at any point during the specified contiguous 15-minute measurement period. Consult the event page and KALSHI's settlement rules for the precise definition used for 'reaches' (e.g., last trade, index value, or high price).
The start and end timestamps are determined by the market's published schedule and the platform's clocking method; because the event currently shows 'Closes: TBD', the exact window and any alignment (UTC or exchange local time) will be provided by KALSHI in the event details prior to settlement. Check the event metadata for the official timestamps once posted.
Settlement will use the price feed(s) specified in the market's official terms and conditions — often an aggregated index or a designated exchange feed. The event page and platform rules list the authoritative source; participants should review those to understand which exchanges and aggregates determine the outcome.
Only occurrences that fall within the exact 15-minute measurement period specified for this market are eligible. Touches outside that defined window do not affect this market's settlement, even if the same target is hit at other times.
High-impact drivers for a short window include large exchange order execution or cancellation, sudden whale transfers or exchange deposits/withdrawals, liquidation cascades in derivatives markets, breaking news about Ethereum or major exchanges, and short-lived oracle or exchange feed anomalies. Because the time frame is short, even a single large aggressive order or a brief data-feed spike can determine the outcome.