| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before April 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before January 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will be out of the office of the U.S. President by the contract's settlement conditions. It matters because changes in presidential incumbency have immediate policy, governance, and market implications.
Donald Trump has been a central figure in recent U.S. politics, with a presidency, post‑presidential legal and political activity, and major public attention. Markets like this aggregate trader expectations about whether he will cease to hold the presidency prior to the contract's resolution for reasons such as resignation, removal, incapacity, death, or a completed transfer of office.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders about the likelihood of each listed outcome and will move as new information arrives. Use those prices as one piece of evidence alongside official announcements, legal rulings, and constitutional processes.
The market divides possible end states into five mutually exclusive outcomes as defined on the contract page; these typically correspond to different timelines or scenarios under which the office is vacated or retained. Review the contract description on the platform to see the exact wording and how each outcome is framed.
The market operator will publish a settlement or resolution date and any interim rules before or during trading. Until that date is specified, traders should expect the platform to resolve the contract according to its stated resolution schedule and rules once they are posted.
Whether an event counts depends on the contract’s precise definition, but typical qualifying events include formal resignation, lawful removal following constitutionally prescribed procedures, certified transfer of office after an election, death, or a formal declaration of inability under constitutional mechanisms. Consult the contract's resolution criteria for definitive treatment.
Criminal charges alone do not remove a sitting president; removal requires the applicable constitutional or statutory mechanism. Only outcomes that meet the contract’s stated criteria—such as an actual vacancy or transfer of office—will determine resolution, so legal developments matter only to the extent they produce those outcomes.
Disputes and ambiguous situations are resolved according to the platform’s official dispute resolution and adjudication procedures. Traders should review the market rules and any published adjudicator guidance; the platform’s resolution authority makes final determinations based on the contract language and available evidence.